My Oscar Predictions

Tomorrow is the big day. I've been poring over the blogs, reading the papers, and watched as many of the nominated films as I could. I usually try to see all the best picture nominees, but I had very mixed feelings about the story of The Reader, so I have not seen that one yet. It doesn't matter, as Slumdog Millionaire is a lock to win.

Best Picture and Director
It's Slumdog Millionaire's year and Danny Boyle made an incredible film. It's the little indie film that could, and I've even read that the little children in the film that were cast from the slums of Mumbai are being flown to the Oscars ceremony. Jai Ho!

Best Actress
Kate Winslet has been nominated 5 times previously and always been the bridesmaid and not the bride. She campaigned to be nominated for her performance in Revolutionary Road, but the members of the academy had other ideas. It was a joke on her appearance in Ricky Gervais' Extras that if she wanted to get an Oscar, she needed to act in a holocaust film. Funny how things work out. I will be happy for her, but in my heart know that she will win for two great performances this year, and as career recognition. I just wish it wasn't for The Reader.

Best Actor
This is one of the categories where I'm really not sure what's going to happen. Some say Sean Penn for Milk, and some say Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler. Mickey Rourke has an amazing personal comeback story to match a wrenching performance as Randy the Ram. He's also a wild card giving speeches at awards ceremonies. Just watch this one at the BAFTA's where he thanks Marisa Tomei for taking her clothes off as he enjoyed looking at her! And I bet some academy voters do vote to make the ceremony more interesting. Mickey Rourke was more than worthy, but I can't stop thinking about Sean Penn in Milk. It was such a transformative performance. I usually think of Sean Penn as being so morose, and he smiled and just became Harvey Milk. It was the best I've ever seen him. My heart goes to Sean Penn, but anything could happen. Mickey Rourke won the Independent Spirit award tonight, but Sean won the SAG award.

Supporting Actress
Anyone who says they know what's going to happen in this category is lying. The odds are on Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barecelona. She was like a hurricane in that film, vulnerable, crazed and a woman you couldn't turn your eyes away from. Viola Davis had only about 12 minutes in Doubt, but she went toe to toe with Meryl Streep and it was a scene I can't stop thinking about. She made quite the impact. If Judi Dench can win for a short performance, why not Viola? Supporting actress is the category where academy voters have given us surprises in the past, so it's anyone's guess.

Supporting Actor
If anyone but Heath Ledger wins for The Joker, there may be a riot, both in my house and the Kodak theater. Locked.

Animated Film
Wall-E

So the only question is how many awards will Slumdog win? Probably editing, cinematography, adapted screenplay, score, and Jai Ho for song. Benjamin Button should win for visual effects and makeup. I haven't seen any of the documentaries, but everyone was buzzing about Man on Wire at Sundance, so that's the likely win there. Original screenplay will probably be Milk, but could be Wall-E, but I'd be thrilled if it was In Bruges. I loved that movie!